{"id":756,"date":"2014-06-25T10:24:53","date_gmt":"2014-06-25T17:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/droneanalyst.com\/?p=756"},"modified":"2017-01-04T10:26:33","modified_gmt":"2017-01-04T18:26:33","slug":"five-reasons-the-auvsi-got-its-drone-market-forecast-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/droneanalyst.com\/2014\/06\/25\/five-reasons-the-auvsi-got-its-drone-market-forecast-wrong\/'","title":{"rendered":"Five Reasons the AUVSI Got Its Drone Market Forecast Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My guest blogger is Mitch Solomon of Aironovo and this is an excerpt from his post which we developed together. You can find his post\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aironovo.com\/auvsi-got-drone-market-forecast-wrong\/\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>Since its publication in early 2013, AUVSI\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com\/AUVSI\/958c920a-7f9b-4ad2-9807-f9a4e95d1ef1\/UploadedImages\/New_Economic%20Report%202013%20Full.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><em>The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States<\/em><\/a> has become the gold standard forecast for the commercial drone market, garnering media attention typically reserved for celebrity weddings and babies born to royalty.\u00a0 Its primary forecast is that the UAS market will reach a whopping $1.14 billion [fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=&#8221;yes&#8221; overflow=&#8221;visible&#8221;][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=&#8221;1_1&#8243; background_position=&#8221;left top&#8221; background_color=&#8221;&#8221; border_size=&#8221;&#8221; border_color=&#8221;&#8221; border_style=&#8221;solid&#8221; spacing=&#8221;yes&#8221; background_image=&#8221;&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;no-repeat&#8221; padding=&#8221;&#8221; margin_top=&#8221;0px&#8221; margin_bottom=&#8221;0px&#8221; class=&#8221;&#8221; id=&#8221;&#8221; animation_type=&#8221;&#8221; animation_speed=&#8221;0.3&#8243; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; hide_on_mobile=&#8221;no&#8221; center_content=&#8221;no&#8221; min_height=&#8221;none&#8221;][1] in the first year after the FAA issues favorable regulations and that the precision agriculture market will \u201cdwarf all others.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The accuracy of these predictions is enormously important. A lot of people &#8211; tens of thousands, if not more &#8211; have been relying upon them for big decisions like, \u201cShould I leave my job to start a drone company?\u201d or \u201cWhich market should my company pursue?\u201d Commercial drones are not just cocktail party conversation&#8211;they are increasingly driving the flow of capital and labor, and impacting many lives in the process.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #343434;\">Inquiring Minds Want To Know<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Recently, however, a growing chorus of industry observers has started to ask questions about the reliability of AUVSI\u2019s findings. <a title=\"Film or Farm: Which is the Bigger Drone Market? \u2013 Part 2\" href=\"http:\/\/droneanalyst.com\/2014\/06\/11\/film-or-farm-which-is-the-bigger-drone-market-part-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">This post<\/a>\u00a0is a good example. These individuals, many of whom are among the true pioneers in commercial UAS usage, can best be characterized as enthusiastic but pragmatic UAS evangelists who don\u2019t want to see unwarranted hyperbole lead to unmet expectations. \u00a0Many realize that initially overhyped industries never recover because customers, investors, and employees who were burned in the initial wave of unmet expectations are difficult\u2014if not impossible\u2014to ever win back.\u00a0 They are passionately committed to the industry\u2019s success and believe that rational expectations are a key part of it.<\/p>\n<p>With no axe to grind or agenda to advance, I [Mitch Solomon] partnered with Colin Snow <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/droneanalyst\" target=\"_blank\">@droneanalyst<\/a> to explore whether the skeptics and pragmatists were on to some something.\u00a0 We felt our combined backgrounds in market intelligence and tech market strategy would give us a reasonable set of expertise to draw upon and would help others form a more balanced opinion of AUVSI\u2019s forecasts.\u00a0 So over the past several weeks, we\u2019ve been carefully reviewing AUVSI\u2019s report, as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Compared their research methodologies to what we believe to be best practices in market research based upon our own experience.<\/li>\n<li>Conducted an in-depth interview with the researchers themselves, so that we could directly ask them questions about their methods and results that were not made clear in the report.<\/li>\n<li>Initiated a follow-up discussion with AUVSI leadership to understand their perspective on the report and its origins.<\/li>\n<li>Performed intensive primary research with about 20 carefully selected professionals in the field of precision agriculture to understand their UAS adoption plans, since the report\u2019s findings are almost entirely based upon rapid adoption by American farmers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We then synthesized our findings into the following five conclusions about the report and its reliability.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Research Can Be Objective, But Don\u2019t Assume It Is<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>First and foremost, every reader of AUVSI\u2019s report needs to understand that it is not an objective piece of research.\u00a0 The report was commissioned not to paint an accurate picture of how the commercial UAS market is expected to evolve, but to give the 50 states and their elected officials the data they needed to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>lobby for funding during the now completed FAA-sponsored competition for UAS test sites, and<\/li>\n<li>push the FAA to move more quickly on the integration of UASs into the national airspace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These are certainly worthwhile goals, and AUVSI should be commended for pursuing them.\u00a0 But as a direct result, the implicit (if not explicit) mission for the two researchers who did the work was to come up with the biggest numbers &#8211; the largest market, fastest growth rates, and biggest costs of delaying integration &#8211; that they could.\u00a0 An objective attempt to size, segment, and forecast the commercial UAS market (all of which the report appears to be), is something it never actually was, and we believe it\u2019s critical that all participants in the UAS industry know this and avoid making decisions based upon it.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Methodology &#8211; Boring But Oh So Important<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>A biased agenda is only one part of the story regarding the reliability of AUVSI\u2019s findings.\u00a0 An equally important part is the quality and reliability of the research methods.\u00a0 Generally speaking, strong research methods yield highly defensible results.\u00a0 While presented somewhat differently in the report, the methodology used by the researchers can be summed up as:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Studying UAS adoption in Japan<\/li>\n<li>Adjusting the Japanese experience for the US market<\/li>\n<li>Asking experts how big they think the market is \/ will be<\/li>\n<li>Applying research on new technology adoption to the US UAS market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As experienced researchers, it sounded pretty good to us at first.\u00a0 But, unfortunately, it did not hold up very well to careful scrutiny.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>Japan &#8211; When the Best Available Proxy Just Isn\u2019t <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>We like the idea of searching for analogous markets and scenarios that can serve as the basis for forecasting the US market.\u00a0 The question is: Is Japan an analogous market for the US? We believe that the US and Japan are so different, and the magnitude of the required extrapolations so enormous, that the resulting data is not useful.\u00a0 Most in the industry already know that Japan\u2019s UAS market remains dominated by one product, the <a href=\"http:\/\/rmax.yamaha-motor.com.au\/\" target=\"_blank\">Yamaha RMAX <\/a>(77% market share in Japan), which is used to spray a large percentage of the country\u2019s rice fields.\u00a0 These fields tend to be small (less than five acres), are often in densely populated areas, and are located on steep hard-to-reach hillsides.\u00a0 In contrast, rice represents a tiny percentage of US agricultural output.\u00a0 Our farms are comparatively huge (very often running well into the thousands of acres).\u00a0 No single product, much less a relatively large, unmanned helicopter from Yamaha is likely to dominate the American market.\u00a0 And remote sensing, not pesticide application, is almost certain to be the dominant use of UAS for the major US crops of corn, wheat, and soy.<\/p>\n<p>While we understand that Japan has been the most aggressive adopter of commercial UAS technology as a result of its rice industry, and we appreciate the resulting temptation to use Japan as a proxy for the United States, we see such a large disparity between the agricultural economies of the two countries that we find it impossible to draw any parallels that inform how the UAS market in the US will evolve.\u00a0 And while no other country serves as a better proxy than Japan, the absence of a better alternative cannot justify the use of a bad one.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li><strong>Expert Opinions or Really Just Guesses?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Another method used by the researchers is referred to as \u201csurvey results.\u201d\u00a0 In short, the researchers conducted 30 telephone interviews with industry experts and asked many questions, including those regarding two critical matters: the size of the commercial UAS market, and the relative size of key market segments.\u00a0 The responses were then used to develop \u201creasonable estimates.\u201d\u00a0 On the surface, the approach of asking experts for their opinions seems sensible whenever you&#8217;re conducting research.\u00a0 However, many of the experts that were consulted were hand-picked by AUVSI, which immediately introduces the possibility (likelihood?) of bias given its agenda.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps more important, not every question is one that experts can necessarily answer well.\u00a0 Certainly UAS industry experts would generally be well prepared to share their opinion on whether fixed wing or rotor aircraft will be more useful for particular applications, or what regulations make the most sense for the small UAS market.\u00a0 But the idea that you can ask experts for opinions about the size of a market and obtain meaningful results is, we believe, inherently flawed.\u00a0 Unless these experts were professionals focused on sizing, segmenting, and forecasting the commercial UAS market (and nothing close to 30 such professionals exist), the opinions voiced by the \u201cexperts\u201d are nothing more than guesses, akin to asking 30 people how many clouds there are in the sky and expecting to get the right answer.\u00a0 Our experience in sizing markets, and in working with many experts across a wide variety of markets over many years, gives us considerable confidence in stating that very few people have good insights into how big a market is today, much less how big it will be years from now, even if they work directly in it.\u00a0 The lack of insight is only compounded for complex, nascent markets like the one for commercial UAS.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li><strong>A Brief Literature Search Isn\u2019t Really a Research Method<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The final method used by the researchers was a \u201cbrief search\u201d of \u201cliterature&#8230;on rates of adoption of new technologies.\u201d\u00a0 The authors explicitly state that they could have gone deeper in investigating how this research might apply to UASs, and that a follow-up study on this subject is recommended.\u00a0 That they simultaneously cite the use of the literature as one of their four methodologies, yet characterize their search of the literature as \u201cbrief\u201d and recommend a follow-up study raises serious questions.\u00a0 From our perspective, the brief use of literature on technology adoption trends is far from a true research method. It\u2019s more akin to subject matter expertise and qualitative insight that professional researchers might use to inform or validate a forecast they developed with rigorous quantitative techniques.\u00a0 How it was actually used and what value it added to the research is unclear, other than allowing the authors to make the statement that because UAS are already being used \u201c&#8230;.we reject the notion that these products will not be adopted,\u201d a statement that even a layperson with little or no knowledge of UAS could likely have made.<\/p>\n<p>In sum, we see a methodology that erroneously uses Japan as an analog; uses experts for answers that are really just guesses; and relies upon a loose, limited, and ambiguous application of prior research on new technology adoption to validate the statement that UAS will, in fact, be used in America.\u00a0 As much as we want to support AUVSI, the authors, their methodology, and the research results, we simply cannot.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sometimes You Get Lucky<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As a final point, we do need to acknowledge (and quickly refute) the possibility that despite the flawed methodology, the research findings are reasonable, by pure chance.\u00a0 Perhaps, as the authors assert, the US commercial UAS market actually will be at least $1.15 billion in the first year after rules are approved.\u00a0 And perhaps 80% of this, or roughly $900 million will be driven by the precision agriculture market.\u00a0 But at the risk of disappointing the reader, and with a view toward keeping this post a reasonable length, suffice it to say that while we have high expectations for the US commercial drone market, we do not see a billion dollar market in year one.<\/p>\n<p>We base our position on the deep understanding we have developed of the precision agriculture market, which is at the heart of AUVSI\u2019s forecast.\u00a0 Indeed, the many in-depth interviews we\u2019ve conducted with farmers, precision agriculture vendors, crop scientists, crop scouts, agriculture equipment dealers, input vendors, academic researchers, manned aircraft operators, satellite imaging providers, UAS-service providers, and many others indicate a building interest in the use of remote sensing in general, and in UASs in particular, but do not support the notion that a mad-dash by farmers and their consultants to use UASs is underway or right around the bend.\u00a0 And after looking at many other vertical and application markets for UAS, we do not see any &#8211; not public safety, inspection, photography, mapping or a variety of other possibilities &#8211; that can close the resulting multi-hundred million dollar gap in the AUVSI forecast created by the much slower adoption we see in precision agriculture.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #343434;\"><strong>Acknowledging the Effort<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #343434;\">Of course, it\u2019s easy to critique the work of others, and hard to do the work yourself.\u00a0 In defense of the report\u2019s authors, we need to acknowledge that they did a lot with a little.\u00a0 They had a budget to work within that was much smaller than is typical for an assignment of this complexity, and they invested much more time and effort than the budget allowed.\u00a0 Like virtually almost everyone else in the brand-new (some would say still non-existent) commercial UAS industry, they had limited prior exposure to the commercial UAS market, making their learning curve steep.\u00a0 And they had complex agendas to meet in order to satisfy their client, AUVSI, and its many stakeholders.\u00a0 In light of the foregoing, there is much for which they should be commended.\u00a0 But creating a forecast for the commercial UAS industry that participants can rely upon for critical decisions is not one their accomplishments.\u00a0 Indeed, it\u2019s not what they set out to do in the first place, so they can\u2019t really be faulted for not accomplishing it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Looking Forward<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As we look to the future of the commercial UAS market in America, we believe the need for reliable data and insights is more acute than ever.\u00a0 Critical decisions about products, markets, channels, and operational best practices are being made daily, even as we write. UAS technology vendors, service providers, and end-users are relying on intuition, gut feel, or data that is very likely misleading.\u00a0 Some decisions will still turn out to be right, but many others will unnecessarily result in big missed opportunities, significant wasted time and resources, disappointed customers, angry investors, disgruntled employees, and many other negative outcomes that certainly could have been avoided.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>[1] AUVSI\u2019s forecast implies a UAS market that is likely significantly greater than the $1.14 billion in 2015 shown in the report, because it does not address the large part of the market that is currently being satisfied by offshore vendors.\u00a0 The $1.14 billion represents only product supplied by US manufacturers of UAS.\u00a0 It may also fail to include industry profits, though further investigation would be required to confirm this.[\/fusion_builder_column][\/fusion_builder_row][\/fusion_builder_container]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My guest blogger is Mitch Solomon of Aironovo and this is an excerpt from his post which we developed together. You can find his post\u00a0here. &#8212;- Since its publication in early 2013, AUVSI\u2019s The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States has become the gold standard forecast for the commercial drone &#8230; <a title=\"Five Reasons the AUVSI Got Its Drone Market Forecast Wrong\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/droneanalyst.com\/2014\/06\/25\/five-reasons-the-auvsi-got-its-drone-market-forecast-wrong\/&#039;\" aria-label=\"Read more about Five Reasons the AUVSI Got Its Drone Market Forecast Wrong\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,7,32,33,23],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Five Reasons the AUVSI Got Its Drone Market Forecast Wrong<\/title>\n<meta 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